Thursday, August 6, 2015

Stalberg the Answer to Ranger's "Pouliot Problem"

Benoit Pouliot, A.K.A. "Captain Taco," was
Captain Possession for the Rangers in 2013-14.
        In 2014-15 the Rangers had statistically, their best regular season in franchise history, finishing with a franchise-record 53 wins and 113 points, and tied an NHL record with 28 wins on the road. The team finished in the top 5 in both goals scored and goals against and led the league in goal differential; an elite team by all counts. However, many fans couldn't help but feel something was missing from the 2013-14 version which won fewer games but was able to advance to the Stanley Cup Final. What was missing was possession. The Rangers saw a lot less of the puck in 2014-15, taking only 49.5% of all the shot attempts in their games this season, ranking 20th in league. It was a clear weakness compared to other elite teams around the league such as Chicago and Tampa Bay who ranked in the top 5. It was also a significant downgrade from the 2013-14 team which took 52.4% of the attempts and ranked 8th in the league.
        Looking at the roster, what the Rangers lacked was a legitimate possession driver; a player who's primary strength is that his team takes most of the shots when he's on the ice. In 13-14 that player was Benoit Pouliot. The Rangers took a sterling 54.9% of the shots when Pouliot was on the ice, indicating that when he was on the ice, the Rangers usually had the puck. This has been true for Pouliot -who sports an average CF% (shots attempted %) of 52.2 over the last eight seasons- during is entire career. Pouliot was even a positive (50.4%) possession player in 2014-15 despite being on an Edmonton team that was horrible at possession, posting a team mark of 48.1%. Because of his mix of speed and size, Pouliot is an outstanding player along the boards, contributing significantly to the team's possession. Although the Rangers were able to withstand losing Pouliot's production, scoring 252 goals in 2014-15 versus only 218 in 2013-14, their possession game never recovered from losing one of  their biggest possession drivers.
        Fast-forward to the 2015 offseason, and a cap crunch has prevented the Rangers from spending a great deal on free agents. However, that does not mean they did not make a significant signing. Enter Viktor Stalberg, who most Rangers fans don't see as a significant signing. After all, he only averages 32 points per season which is third-line production. Production however, is not the main thing Stalberg is bringing to the table, and coming into his stint with the Rangers, Pouliot was only a third-line producer. What Stalberg will bring, is that same strong possession game. Over the last eight seasons, Stalberg is a superlative possession player, with his team taking 54.0% of the shots when he's on the ice. The argument one might make is that Stalberg played for Chicago, who have been an elite possession team every single year since winning the Cup in 2010. However, Stalberg's most common linemates during his tenure, including Bryan Bickell, Andrew Shaw, and even Chicago's talisman Duncan Keith saw significant drops in possession metrics away from Stalberg. The stats show that Stalberg was helping the Blackhawks, not the other way around. At 6'3", 203 pounds, Stalberg sports an identical build to Benoit Pouliot and like Pouliot, is one of the fastest big men in the league. As such, much like Pouliot, Stalberg is a dominant player along the boards and gets his team the puck. I'd go so far as to say that if Benoit Pouliot was born in Sweden, he'd be Viktor Stalberg.
Stalberg could be the answer if he returns to his Chicago form.
        Since leaving Chicago, Stalberg has faltered, which had lead many to believe he was simply a product of Chicago's greatness, and it's why most Rangers fans are not as excited about the signing as I am. In 2013-14 Stalberg posted just 18 points in 70 games, and what was really shocking is that he was a 48.8% possession player. However, in 2014-15 Stalberg battled injury, but in a short season was a 52.2% possession player and posted 10 points in 25 games, perfectly in line with his career totals. It appears 2013-14 was an outlier.
        There is some risk involved in the signing. There's no guarantee Stalberg returns to his Chicago form. But if Stalberg were a sure thing, the Rangers wouldn't have gotten him for $1.1 million. When a team is short on cap space, it is up to management to maximize what little value they have to work with. In his first test in this situation, I believe General Manager Jeff Gorton has passed with flying colors with the Stalberg signing. All the numbers indicate that 2013-14 was a fluke season for Stalberg and he should return to his Chicago form. If he does, the Rangers are getting a good hockey player and one who will play a significant role on this team; one that hasn't been filled since Benoit Pouliot left last summer.

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